December 10th -$6.6

1 Comment

evcouta Posted December 9, 2018 11:20 pm

Gurley’s odds on the 1st or 2nd touchdown scorer market are currently $2.2 with Tabtouch, if we make an estimate that Tabtouch have placed a margin on these odds of around 20% then the true predicted odds of Gurley scoring the 1st or 2nd touchdown would be around the $2.6 mark. Simply put, this means the bookmakers offer us worse odds than what they expect the true odds to be hence placing a ‘margin’ in their set markets.

Odds with Tabtouch promo: $4.5
Estimated true odds: $2.6

Therefore, with the current layout of a $10 stake we would be receiving an extra $19 in profit compared to the estimated true odds, with an estimated EV of this bet to be $7.1.

Expected value (EV) =
(profit if promotion triggers x probability of the promo triggering) minus
(qualifying cost x probability of promo not triggering)
35 x 38 = 13.3
–
10 x 62 =6.2
=EV of $7.1

Numbers in the above calculation:
$35 = the profit made if Gurley scores 1s or 2nd touchdown
38%= percentage probability that Gurley scores the 1st or 2nd touchdown (based off estimated true odds)
$10 = our stake/qualifying cost
62%= percentage probability Gurley DOESN’T score the 1st or 2nd touchdown

Comments are closed.