December 4th +$87

3 Comments

• 
  evcouta Posted December 3, 2018 10:17 pm

  Using Pointsbet for a mugbet. You could take it out if you wanted to and ensure yourself a few bucks here and there by hedging just the beteasy promo with UBET/TAB. Not worth it imo..use the promo to get more mugs throughout your accounts.
• 
  evcouta Posted December 3, 2018 11:59 pm

  Tabtouch have the 1st or 2nd touchdown scorer market priced at $5 for Adrian Peterson. If we make an estimate that Tabtouch have marked a 20% margin on their odds for this market this would take the approximate true odds of this selection to roughly $6.

  Estimate true odds: $6
  Odds taken with use of promo: $10

  Therefore, betting on the current odds at $10 with the use of the promotion (payed out on the 1st or 2nd touchdown scorer) would give us a $40 boost in profit compared with the estimated true odds of $6.
• 
  evcouta Posted December 4, 2018 12:08 am

  Expected Value (EV) =
  (Profit if promo triggers x probability of triggering) minus
  (qualifying cost x probability of not triggering)

  $90 x 0.17 = 15.3
  –
  $10 x 0.83 = 8.3
  = An estimated EV of $7

  $90 = profit if promo triggers (Peterson scores 1st or 2nd)
  0.17 = percentage probability of Peterson scoring the 1st or 2nd (based of the estimated true odds of $6)
  $10 = the qualifying cost (our stake)
  0.83 = percentage probability that Peterson DOESN’T score the 1st or 2nd touchdown

  So if we were to place this bet many times over we could expect (over time) for our bet results to even out towards an EV of $7 per bet which is a good return from just a $10 stake (70%).

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