Anonymous
If it was me, I’d just bet on it and hope you win, and if not you’ll get a bonus back, which you could then turn in to approximately $40 real cash. So your “$50” bet is really costing you $10, so you’re really increasing the effective odds you’re getting by 5 times, so if the odds of a margin is $2, you’re effective odds are really $10. In the long run, betting at odds like this you’re going to come out ahead. Just keep betting on the margins until you lose one.
Of course you do need to check the odds on Crown are comparable to other bookies odds though. I.e I do find sometimes when a bookie has a promo, they may have reduced their odds compared to other bookies. You just need to make sure you’re betting on bets that have close to the normal odds of other bookies.
The problem I find with promos like this is you need to lose to get the money back. If you have some wins early on chasing the bonus refund, it can really eat in to your profits you end up from the bonus. I personally find it’s less work and more profits in the long run to just hope for the win, and use the bonus to try and cover the losses somewhat if you don’t.