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The Cash Kings © 2024 All Rights Reserved.| Terms Of Use |
18+ ONLY | If, at any time, you feel that your gambling is becoming a problem we recommend contacting gamblinghelponline.org.au and seeking help.
6 Comments
Why has there been no NBA promos for a while? Sportsbet has been running the 16 up promo for almost 2 weeks yet not a single promo with them has been posted? That promo has potential for decent payouts. Even if the stats dont show it may hit that often, surely in the last couple of weeks there would have been at least one or two worth doing, even if it’s just to hedge with another bookie to create mugs? I’ve personally hit my own one yesterday with Phoenix and the Kings and I know there have been other games where it has hit.
It feels like this service has been pushed aside recently with this “new racing service” being released …
Didn’t you just answer your own question when you said “even if the stats don’t show it may hit that often”?
What’s the point of getting on a promo if you’re going to lose money?
If you work off a standard 5% loss on qualifying bets, you’d need the promo is come off 1 in every 19 times just to break even.
Here are the stats for 15 point margin come backs in the past 4 years (so potentially 16 would be slightly worse)
2018: 1 in 36.71 games
2017: 1 in 35.14 games
2016: 1 in 33.69
2015: 1 in 42.41 games
So at a 5% loss, the promo is nowhere near profitable. Even taking the best recent stats for it of 1 in 33.69 games, you’d need to get on with a qualifying loss of around only 3% (eg say odds of 1.9 for one team and 1.98 for the other) just to break even on the promo, let alone profit from it.
Sure there are some teams that have better stats than others for this promo to come off, but overall it’s a terrible promo, and the cash kings team is actually saving you money by not putting plays up using this promo.
Also there are so many NBA games each day/week the promo might still seem to be occurring frequently, but in reality it’s still only occurring every x number of games.
I get what you mean. I just thought that it would warrant at least one play over the last 2 weeks, even like I said to create a mug with another bookie on the best chances based on stats. There must surely be some teams which have increased odds of blowing leads and if you remove the teams where it hardly ever happens those percentages would improve. I would have thought it would warrant at least one play on one of the teams more likely for it to occur.
All potential promo payouts are taking a risk on occurring. You can’t say “what’s the point of getting on a promo when it’s going to lose” when it’s not guaranteed to lose. I won one yesterday and it was only the 3rd bet I’ve done on this promo.
I’m not doubting the stats or the work that goes on just querying why there hasnt been any plays at all. Thanks for pointing out those stats. Puts it into perspective I guess.
When I say going to lose, I mean long term. It’s got a -EV. If a promo has a -EV there isn’t any point on betting on it. You’ll lose money in the long run.
If you did want to have a crack at specific teams though, last year the celtics had the most comebacks from 15 points down, so they may let their opposition out to a lead and come back to win.
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