January 16th = $4.6

dontblushbaby Posted January 15, 2019 10:23 pm

J Thompson v Andreas Seppi – Tabtouch just posted a promotion on this game just after we posted the play so we won’t alter it now but for those that want to get on, it’s a 50% boost on your winnings up to $50 if your player wins in straight sets (3-0). Bet365 has Seppi to win 3-0 at $3.75 (around a 25% chance), and Thompson to win 3-0 at $5.5 (around a 17% chance). If you would like to give your Sportsbet account a rest or would rather hit a promotion more likely to trigger, switch it with Tabtouch using the above promo on Seppi currently priced at $1.66.

dontblushbaby Posted January 15, 2019 10:25 pm

*Note Bet365 has nothing to do with the above play/promotions, their odds were just used for an estimation of the chances of the Tabtouch promotion triggering.

dontblushbaby Posted January 15, 2019 10:41 pm

Verdasco v Albot – Using some calcs our estimated percentage of the chances of Verdasco leading any set by 4 games and then losing the match is just under 5%. Below is our estimated Expected Value (EV) using this 5% prediction.

dontblushbaby Posted January 15, 2019 10:46 pm

Expected Value (EV) =
Profit if promo triggers x probability of promotion triggering
minus
Qualifying cost x probability of promotion not triggering

$248 x 0.05 = $12.4
–
$2 x 0.95 = $1.9

=An EV of $10.5

matt.hooper Posted January 16, 2019 2:56 pm

I got one the Seppi on Tabtouch. Thanks for the tip

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