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18+ ONLY | If, at any time, you feel that your gambling is becoming a problem we recommend contacting gamblinghelponline.org.au and seeking help.
9 Comments
Geelong arguably have the best Rounds 2-5 fixture of any club, with no travel outside of Victoria during this period, 3/4 of their games being played at their fortress GMHBA stadium, and playing last years bottom top 3 teams during this period (Carlton, Melbourne & Gold Coast).
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Let’s start with their record at GMHBA, where they’ll play three out of their next 4 games. From their last 37 matches at the stadium, they have managed to be winners in a whopping 33 of them. While you can argue that the removal of crowds removes any significant advantage to all teams home grounds, which is certainly true for the most part, they’re clearly suited to the slimmer dimensions down at GMHBA, and have a structure designed to cater to this stadium.
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Their opponents: Hawthorn in Round 2 at GMHBA, which should be a close match-up but Geelong are currently favoured at $1.60. This one will most likely be Geelong’s toughest game during this period, so if they can start off with a win here, this trade will be very well placed.
Round 3: Carlton at GMHBA, while Carlton should improve this season, Geelong will start heavy favourites in this one and should get the job done.
Round 4: Melbourne, who placed 17th last year, being played at the MCG. Geelong should again start favourites, however we do expect Melbourne to bounce back this season so this will by no means by an easy beat.
Round 5: To cap off a favourable period, Geelong will play Gold Coast in round 5 at GMHBA. Gold Coast, the worst team in the AFL, will start heavy underdogs and shouldn’t present a real challenge to this Geelong outfit.
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Another minor factor that will favour this trade is the fact that most of the top teams play each other during these first 5 rounds, meaning it will be difficult for one of them to get off to a flyer.
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For instance;
Collingwood: Play Richmond in R2, Giants in R4
Richmond: Play Collingwood in R2, West Coast in R5
West Coast: Brisbane in R3, Richmond in R5
GWS: Bulldogs in R3, Collingwood in R4
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This should benefit our Geelong trade as it means we are more likely to be sitting towards the top of the ladder after Round 5.
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Summary:
1. Back Geelong with 1-unit at $17 with Bet365
2. Look to lay or cash-out after Round 5
Note this will also count as a mug-bet with Bet365, which is a minor plus if you’re constantly using their racing promos.
Ideally you want to Lay out of this trade after Round 5, however this will obviously incur a large liability on your Betfair account. For those of you that have a hefty bankroll behind you from sustained success from matched betting, this shouldn’t present too much of an issue. However, for those of you that have a smaller bankroll, or simply don’t want a large chunk of liability locked in your Betfair account, you can easily use the Bet365 cash-out feature on this trade, which bypasses the need for the large Betfair liability.
We estimate approximate odds of $11 or less after Round 5 for Geelong, who should be sitting on 3 wins and 2 losses, or potentially if we’re lucky, on 4 wins and 1 loss. Keep in mind that this season will only total 17 games per team, meaning we’ll already be one-third through the season at the Round 5. This simply means due to less games being played, each game will have an increased effect on the premiership market odds.
Therefore if we can enter at $17, and lay around $11, we will have attained a 50% Return On Investment (ROI) within a period of 4-weeks.
Note: ROI mentioned above is for the back stake only, the overall ROI will be closer to around 3% when we factor in the Betfair Liability
However we assume most of you will look to cash-out rather than lay, meaning the liability will be no issue
Update: Odds have changed to $15, still take that if you want to follow!
Are we able to use sportsbet they are $18 and also have the cash out option?
Great spot legend, take that $18 for sure!
Lay bet already $15
Yep, we’re getting a great price here at the bookies, Lay price was $14 just a few minutes ago, someone must have snapped that up already to lock in a profit.
We’re happy to target the lower odds for this trade though
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