March 18th = $515
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22 Comments
The remaining AFL/NRL plays seen above will be finalised on Thursday afternoon, typically somewhere around 4pm
Cripps is down to $4.50 – is that still worth it?
I would now go $6.00 with Neds/Ladbrokes in Group A – it includes more players but provides a touch more value given the prices
Sportsbet AFL promo (goal in first 2-minutes)
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Teams scored a goal within the first two-minutes of the match 59 times last season, which makes for a 38% strike rate relative to the 153 regular season games played in 2020. From these 59 teams, 20 went on to lose the match, providing a final strike rate of 13%.
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As we also seen with the NRL promo covered last week, teams in the bottom half of the ladder were more prone to triggering a double payout compared to a top 8 side (14 of the 20 games came from a bottom 10 team).
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This already makes for a great promo however we can likely expect these stats to increase in the 2021 season. Firstly, last seasons 16-minute quarters lead to lower scores and therefore less goals. This year the 20-minute quarters are back, but more importantly the AFL is eager to increase movement and attack. The new man of the mark rule is one that will likely have the most impact, giving attacking teams more opportunity in transition. The players may take a few weeks to adapt to the rule also, with a 50-metre penalty occurring for an infringement on this rule. This will no doubt lead to some easy shots on goal from these penalties.
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If you want to watch a video for full info on the new AFL rules, click the link below.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/524846/game-adjustments-for-the-2021-toyota-afl-premiership-season
Down-scaled version of the AFL play if you have a smaller bankroll:
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https://www.profitkings.com.au/promo-tools/#/promo/?t=Promo%20Calculator&n=2&a=Richmond&b=Carlton&c=Result%20C&r=%5B%7B%22e%22%3A14%2C%22s1%22%3A100%2C%22o1%22%3A1.25%2C%22s2%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o2%22%3A%22%22%7D%2C%7B%22e%22%3A13%2C%22s1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22s2%22%3A35%2C%22o2%22%3A3.73%7D%5D
If we don’t have tab promos for first play which bookie should we use? Thanks
Hey mate, I would probably just go with the best odds on the Richmond for a mug-bet, and still hit Sportsbet on Carlton. So it could look like this:
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https://www.profitkings.com.au/promo-tools/#/promo/?t=Promo%20Calculator&n=2&a=Richmond&b=Carlton&c=Result%20C&r=%5B%7B%22e%22%3A7%2C%22s1%22%3A200%2C%22o1%22%3A1.28%7D%2C%7B%22e%22%3A13%2C%22s1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22s2%22%3A70%2C%22o2%22%3A3.73%7D%5D
Still a decent play, and probably not worth placing any early pay-outs promos on Richmond as we’ll save those for other matches to come
Thanks Mate
No worries, good luck!
Anything if we dont have a promo sportsbet account?
I would probably give this one a miss without Sportsbet. There’s a few other promos around but it doesn’t make for the ideal match given Richmond are a short favourite. Is your account banned with them? If so I would definitely look into sourcing another account
Sorry that’s if you don’t have Tab too, if you do have them then definitely place them on Richmond and then dutch on Carlton at $4.15 with Bet365
https://www.profitkings.com.au/promo-tools/#/promo/?t=Promo%20Calculator&n=2&a=Richmond&b=Carlton&c=Result%20C&r=%5B%7B%22e%22%3A14%2C%22s1%22%3A200%2C%22o1%22%3A1.25%2C%22s2%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o2%22%3A%22%22%7D%2C%7B%22e%22%3A1%2C%22s2%22%3A60%2C%22o2%22%3A4.15%7D%5D
Or you can even dutch with Betfair on Carlton around $4.40 (becomes $4.31 after 2.5% commission)
Odds update on the AFL play, a much better Qualifying Loss currently available:
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https://www.profitkings.com.au/promo-tools/#/promo/?t=Promo%20Calculator&n=2&a=Richmond&b=Carlton&c=Result%20C&r=%5B%7B%22e%22%3A14%2C%22s1%22%3A215%2C%22o1%22%3A1.25%2C%22s2%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o2%22%3A%22%22%7D%2C%7B%22e%22%3A13%2C%22s1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22o1%22%3A%22%22%2C%22s2%22%3A70%2C%22o2%22%3A4%7D%5D
Please excuse my ignorance but what is a disposal and how is old mate going with them?? Sounds like he is the dustman
Hey mate, a disposal is just a kick or handball of the footy, which typically the midfielders get the most of. Cripps done fairly well tonight especially considering we got him at $5-$6. He finished on 28 which was 3-short of the leader (in the group) Dustin Martin on 31.
For future reference if you are new here I would likely advise for you to skip the non-promo plays as they do involve more risk compared to the ones backed by a promo. Once you have built up a nice bankroll of profits then you can start to stake whatever you are comfortable with on the non-promo plays (which aren’t too common anyway)
Copy that
Thanks for the rep!y
Anytime, if you need help with anything else feel free to ask
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